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Talks of a new right-wing party alternative to Likud are underway, and the Polymarket contract on Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES.
A “Likud B” party could split Netanyahu’s voter base, directly affecting markets on his departure and his hold on the premiership. The June 30 exit market trades at 5.5% YES, down slightly from 6% over the past week. The April 30 market is effectively dead at 0.2% YES, with little expectation of immediate change.
The potential new party reflects real divisions within Netanyahu’s traditional support base. That fragmentation would complicate coalition-building in Israel’s multi-party system. The biggest jump in odds occurs from April 30 to June 30, a 5-point increase that suggests traders anticipate a catalyst within this window. The term structure shows expectations of movement as the June 30 resolution date approaches, but the market remains thin, with $1,423 in actual USDC trading daily.
At 5.5¢, a YES share on Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 pays $1 if he is out, a potential 18.2x return. Betting on his exit requires belief in a successful new party formation or a coalition shift within the next 67 days.
Watch for formal announcements from Israeli right-wing figures, changes in Likud’s polling numbers, or any response from Netanyahu himself. Shifts in coalition composition would be the most direct catalyst for repricing.
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