2 hours ago
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Israel’s UN ambassador Danny Danon has described the Lebanon ceasefire as “not 100%,” while the market for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Danon’s comments follow President Trump’s announcement of a three-week extension to the ceasefire. The market for Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 remains at 100% YES, even with continued hostilities and allegations of low compliance. The June 30 market is also at 100% YES.
The odds for an Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 remain at 100% YES. But Danon’s statement suggests actual diplomatic progress may be more fragile than these odds imply.
No USDC has been spent on these markets, despite face values suggesting liquidity. Real conviction is absent, and any substantial trades could shift the odds quickly. With $0 in 24h volume, even modest investments could cause significant swings.
Danon’s remarks point to a ceasefire that is less stable than traders appear to assume. A YES share for Trump’s endorsement at 100¢ offers zero margin for error. Any shift in rhetoric from key actors could move these markets fast.
Watch for statements from the IDF or Hezbollah that confirm or deny ceasefire stability. Trump or Netanyahu adjusting their public stance on the ceasefire could also have immediate market effects.
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