Israeli intel studied Iran’s Fordow site, supports US strike: Cohen

Former Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen revealed that Israeli intelligence extensively studied Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, emphasizing the depth of Israel’s understanding of the site. Cohen also expressed support for the U.S. military action that targeted Fordow in June 2025. The Fordow site, known for its fortified underground construction, was a key target in the U.S. strikes, which marked a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. These developments coincide with a noticeable shift in prediction markets regarding the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal being achieved in 2026.

Recent market data indicates a decline in the probability of a US-Iran deal including reconstruction funding, with odds falling to 18.5% from 22% over the past 24 hours. This downturn appears consistent with increased military tensions, as underscored by Cohen’s statements, which could hinder diplomatic efforts. Moreover, broader geopolitical implications of such military actions may further complicate negotiations, as suggested by related prediction markets.

The market for the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by the end of the year also reflects a low probability, at 7.5%. This suggests skepticism about significant diplomatic breakthroughs that could facilitate uranium transfer agreements. The intertwined military and diplomatic dynamics continue to be a focal point for market participants assessing the potential outcomes of ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Key Takeaways

• Cohen’s comments appear to align with increased military tensions, impacting market sentiment on a US-Iran nuclear deal.
• The likelihood of reconstruction funding being part of a US-Iran deal in 2026 has decreased, as reflected in recent market activity.
• Markets suggest skepticism about the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by the end of 2026, with low current probabilities.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any changes in diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran, as well as any further military actions from Israel that could influence market dynamics. Statements from key actors, such as U.S. negotiators and Iranian officials, will be critical in assessing the possibility of a deal. Developments in related geopolitical regions, especially concerning military activities, may also significantly affect market expectations regarding a US-Iran agreement.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.