ISW: Russian forces face resistance, shift to attrition tactics in Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has released its latest assessment on the Russian offensive campaign, detailing ongoing operations in Ukraine. Despite intensified efforts, Russian forces have faced significant resistance, with minimal territorial gains near Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kostyantynivka. ISW reports highlight a continued focus on drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, as well as a humanitarian blockade in the occupied region of Kherson. Additionally, Russia’s efforts to mobilize local populations through educational programs in Luhansk indicate a strategic shift towards sustained attrition tactics rather than quick territorial advances.

Markets are interpreting the ISW report as a potential indicator of forthcoming Russian military movements in the region. The detailed assessment suggests a possible increase in the likelihood of Russian forces entering Sloviansk by the end of 2026. This interpretation is reflected in the latest market data, where odds for such a scenario have seen notable fluctuations.

Key Takeaways

• The ISW report on Russian operations appears to suggest a shift toward sustained attrition campaigns, impacting market perceptions of future troop movements.
• Market activity indicates a potential increase in the likelihood of Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026, with odds currently supportive of this outcome.
• The assessment also highlights continued Russian efforts in drone and missile strikes, and local mobilization efforts in occupied regions, which could influence future campaign dynamics.

What to Watch

Observers will closely monitor any strategic changes in Russian military operations, particularly in regions like Sloviansk, Kharkiv, and Kostyantynivka. Updates from the ISW or other military intelligence sources could provide further clarity on the likelihood of Russian territorial advances. Additionally, any shifts in international response, such as increased NATO support for Ukraine or changes in sanctions against Russia, could impact the broader conflict dynamics and market expectations.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.