J.P. Morgan upgrades Tesla to Neutral, raises price target to $475

J.P. Morgan just did something it hasn’t done in a very long time: stopped betting against Tesla.

Analyst Rajat Gupta upgraded Tesla from Underweight to Neutral on June 5, slapping a $475 price target on the stock. That’s up from $145, a roughly 228% increase. The reasoning is simple, if you squint: Tesla isn’t really a car company anymore. It’s a robotics and AI company that happens to sell cars.

The bull case, minus the cars

Gupta’s note essentially argues that Tesla’s electric vehicle business is becoming a side plot. The main story, according to J.P. Morgan, is now Optimus humanoid robots, autonomous driving, AI chips, and software services.

Gupta projects Tesla’s revenue could reach approximately $203 billion by 2030, roughly doubling from around $95 billion in 2025. Nearly half of that 2030 figure is expected to come from autonomous and robotics-related sectors.

Earnings per share tell a similar story. Gupta sees EPS climbing to around $7.50 by 2030, up from approximately $1.95 in 2026.

The analyst’s framework breaks Tesla’s opportunity into five addressable markets: automotive, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots, and infrastructure licensing. Together, those markets are estimated to be worth roughly $3.9 trillion by 2035.

The market’s response was… telling

Tesla shares fell approximately 6.6% on the day the note dropped. The stock was trading around $418 to $419 when Gupta published his analysis, meaning the $475 target only implied about 13% upside from current levels.

A Neutral rating isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. It’s the Wall Street equivalent of saying “we’re no longer actively telling you to sell this.” J.P. Morgan essentially moved its model to catch up with where the market already was, rather than getting ahead of it.

What this means for investors

J.P. Morgan is one of the largest and most influential banks on Wall Street. When its analysts publicly declare that Tesla should be valued primarily on robotics and AI potential rather than car sales, it gives institutional investors cover to do the same thing.

Gupta is projecting that by 2030, nearly half of Tesla’s revenue will come from autonomous driving and robotics, sectors where Tesla currently generates minimal revenue. Tesla first promised full self-driving capability years ago. The Optimus robot has been demonstrated in controlled settings but remains far from commercial deployment at scale. Energy storage is growing but still represents a fraction of total revenue.

With shares trading around $418 and J.P. Morgan’s newly neutral target sitting at $475, the implied upside is modest. If vehicle margins continue compressing while robotics and autonomous revenue remain pre-commercial, Tesla could face a gap period where the narrative outpaces the financials — a risk Gupta acknowledged but set aside in his analysis.

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