JPMorgan: Bitcoin could get more support than gold if ETF hedging fades

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Wall Street’s biggest bank just made a quiet but telling bet about which asset has more room to run. JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin ETF demand could get more support than gold’s if investors start unwinding their hedges, pointing to a widening gap in how each asset is currently positioned in the derivatives market. The call, detailed in a Wednesday report from JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, hinges on something most headlines about crypto and gold prices tend to miss: not who’s winning right now, but who’s more defensively positioned against a downturn.

Key takeaways

JPMorgan says Bitcoin could get more support than gold if ETF hedging demand declines.
Gold ETFs have fully recovered their 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half.
Short interest in BlackRock’s IBIT is near its highest level this year; GLD’s short interest sits below its historical average.
IBIT carries a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD, signaling heavier downside hedging on Bitcoin.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $450.4 million in net outflows on September 15, the same day the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act.

JPMorgan Highlights Bitcoin’s Potential Edge Over Gold in ETF Demand

JPMorgan’s core argument is straightforward: Bitcoin is carrying more defensive positioning than gold right now, and that gap itself could become a source of upside if it closes. The bank‘s analysts wrote that if hedging demand around Bitcoin eases, the resulting unwind of those defensive bets could lend the asset more support than gold gets from fresh buying alone.

Bitcoin ETF Recovery Lags Compared to Gold in 2026

Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs picked up inflows after the Federal Reserve’s meeting in late July, when the so-called debasement trade — the rotation into scarce assets amid concerns about currency devaluation — made a comeback. But the recovery since then hasn’t been even. Gold ETFs have now recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows, according to JPMorgan. Bitcoin ETFs have only clawed back about half of theirs. JPMorgan framed that shortfall as an opportunity rather than a weakness, noting it leaves more room for Bitcoin ETF demand to rebuild if market sentiment turns more favorable.

ETF Hedging Indicates Higher Investor Caution on Bitcoin

Futures positioning remains elevated in both assets, which JPMorgan takes as a sign that large institutional investors haven’t abandoned either Bitcoin or gold despite the recent softness in demand. Where the two diverge is in how much protection investors are buying against a drop. That distinction, more than headline flows, is what’s driving JPMorgan’s comparative view of gold ETF flows versus its crypto counterpart.

Market Positioning and Institutional Behavior in Bitcoin and Gold ETFs

Options and short-interest data paint a consistent picture: investors are still treating Bitcoin as the riskier bet, even as both assets attract institutional money.

Sustained Futures Positioning Indicates Continued Exposure

Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT, remains close to its highest level this year. Short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, or GLD, sits below its historical average by comparison. JPMorgan’s analysts said this contrast “suggests that bitcoin still faces an overall more sceptical positioning backdrop than gold, perhaps due to more elevated hedging demand, despite the recent inflows and build up of futures positioning.”

ETF Short Interest and Options Data Reflect Hedging Differences

The options market tells a similar story. IBIT’s put-to-call open interest ratio runs higher than GLD’s, which JPMorgan says points to more hedging activity built around Bitcoin than around gold. Put another way, more investors are buying protection against a Bitcoin selloff than are buying protection against a drop in gold. JPMorgan’s analysts summed up the implication bluntly: “the more elevated short interest in the IBIT vs. GLD ETF could create more support for bitcoin vs gold from here if hedging demand is reduced.” They did caveat that other factors could still shape how each asset trades going forward.

Regulatory and Market Events Impacting ETF Flows

Bitcoin ETF demand didn’t weaken in a vacuum — it shifted alongside two specific developments: rising real yields and a legislative setback in Washington.

Senate Vote on CLARITY Act and Its Effects on Bitcoin ETF Demand

The debasement trade that lifted both Bitcoin and gold after the late-July Fed meeting lost steam over the following week as inflation-adjusted bond yields climbed. Then, on September 15, the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a 49-50 cloture vote, falling short amid a broader dispute over crypto policy. That regulatory stumble adds a layer of uncertainty to any near-term rebound in Bitcoin ETF demand, since the bill’s fate has become a proxy for how Washington intends to treat digital assets going forward.

Notable Bitcoin ETF Outflows on September 15, 2026

The market reaction was immediate. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.4 million in net outflows on September 15, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading withdrawals and BlackRock’s IBIT also posting heavy redemptions. The outflows came alongside renewed selling pressure across the broader crypto market, reinforcing JPMorgan’s read that Bitcoin ETF demand has been more fragile than gold’s in the current stretch.

Analyst Perspectives on Future Asset Growth and Institutional Preferences

Beyond JPMorgan’s positioning-based case, other voices in the ETF world are looking further out — and seeing a much larger structural shift.

Bloomberg Analyst’s Outlook on Bitcoin ETFs Surpassing Gold ETFs

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin ETFs may one day amass assets three times larger than those held by gold ETFs, a trend he linked to younger investors accumulating more wealth as time passes and institutions becoming increasingly at ease with gaining Bitcoin exposure via regulated fund vehicles.

Institutional Favor of Gold Due to Bitcoin’s Volatility and Correlation

That long-term thesis comes with a present-day caveat. Balchunas said institutions still lean toward gold because Bitcoin remains more volatile and tends to trade in step with technology stocks — a correlation that makes it a less reliable diversifier during risk-off periods. He added that if Bitcoin’s volatility eases and its link to equity markets weakens over time, that balance of institutional preference could shift. JPMorgan’s own positioning data lines up with that view: Bitcoin still carries heavier hedging than gold right now, a gap the bank says could narrow if investor demand for Bitcoin strengthens.

FAQ

Why might Bitcoin receive more support than gold according to JPMorgan?

JPMorgan analysts state that if ETF hedging demand declines, Bitcoin could receive more support than gold due to more room for Bitcoin to regain demand.

How have Bitcoin and gold ETFs recovered from their outflows in 2026?

Gold ETFs have fully recovered their 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered about half of theirs.

What do the short interest levels in IBIT and GLD indicate?

Short interest in IBIT remains near its highest level this year, reflecting more investor caution on Bitcoin, while GLD short interest is below its historical average.