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JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta just put a number on Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions that’s hard to ignore: $320 billion in revenue by 2035. But the real story isn’t the size of the figure. It’s where that money is expected to come from.
According to Gupta’s research note, roughly $314 billion of that total, about 98%, would flow from a Tesla-owned and operated fleet. The customer-operated “Tesla Network,” once pitched as a way for Tesla owners to earn passive income by lending their cars to a ride-hailing service, would contribute a comparatively modest $5 billion.
The death of the passive-income dream
For years, Elon Musk painted a picture where Tesla owners could make money while they slept. The idea was simple: your car drives strangers around while you’re at work, and you pocket the revenue.
JPMorgan’s analysis essentially retires that storyline. Gupta’s note reframes Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing strategy as a vertically integrated, capital-intensive operation. Think less Airbnb-for-cars, more Waymo-with-better-margins. Tesla would own the vehicles, manage the fleet, and capture nearly all the economics.
JPMorgan’s upgraded outlook
This $320 billion projection didn’t emerge in isolation. JPMorgan upgraded Tesla’s stock from Underweight to Neutral back in June 2026, simultaneously raising its price target from $145 to $475. That’s a 227% increase, reflecting the bank’s growing confidence in two of Tesla’s moonshot initiatives: robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot program.
Tesla’s recent financial performance provides some foundation for that shift. The company reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase. Earnings per share came in below consensus expectations. CFO guidance for 2026 capital expenditures north of $25 billion underscores just how much Tesla is investing in this vision. That spending is largely directed at expanding the company’s fleet, ramping Cybercab production at Gigafactory Texas, and building out the infrastructure needed to support autonomous ride-hailing across multiple markets.
Scale already in motion
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system has accumulated roughly 10 billion cumulative miles across a global fleet of approximately 9 million vehicles. The robotaxi service currently operates in seven major US metro areas, with 1.48 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions providing a revenue stream while the fully autonomous fleet scales up.
For context, $320 billion in annual robotaxi revenue by 2035 would dwarf Tesla’s current run rate. At roughly $113 billion in annualized revenue based on Q2 figures, the robotaxi business alone would need to nearly triple the company’s total revenue within about nine years.
The comparison to Waymo is instructive. Alphabet’s autonomous driving subsidiary has taken a similar company-operated approach, managing its own fleet rather than relying on individual vehicle owners. Tesla appears to be converging on a similar model but with the advantage of manufacturing its own vehicles and controlling its own chip design.
The $25 billion-plus in planned 2026 capital expenditures is a bet that Tesla can build that moat faster than anyone else. Whether the $320 billion revenue target materializes depends on regulatory approvals across dozens of jurisdictions, the continued improvement of autonomous driving technology, consumer willingness to ride in driverless vehicles, and Tesla’s ability to manufacture enough Cybercabs to meet demand.
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