JPMorgan says Strategy may need to rebuild dollar reserves to restore investor confidence

Strategy Inc., the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has a cash problem. JPMorgan analysts flagged concerns that the firm’s dollar reserves have thinned to the point where rebuilding them is no longer optional, it’s necessary to keep investors from heading for the exits.

The trigger: Strategy sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31. That’s a tiny amount relative to the company’s massive Bitcoin holdings, but the signal it sent was anything but small. When the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin starts selling, even in modest quantities, people notice.

The math behind the worry

Here’s the thing. Strategy carries roughly $1.7 billion in annual dividend obligations. Its current dollar reserves cover approximately 6.3 months of those payments. For a company that has built its entire identity around never selling Bitcoin, having less than seven months of dividend runway is, well, uncomfortable.

Back in December 2025, Strategy established a $1.44 billion USD reserve. The fund was built through equity offerings and designed to cover between 12 and 24 months of dividend payments. The whole point was to create a buffer large enough that the company would never need to liquidate Bitcoin to meet its obligations to preferred shareholders.

That 12-to-24-month target has now shrunk to 6.3 months. The gap between intention and reality is doing the heavy lifting in JPMorgan’s analysis.

Why 32 BTC matters more than it should

Strategy holds hundreds of thousands of BTC, making it by far the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury on the planet. The narrative that Michael Saylor’s company built, the one that attracted billions of dollars in equity and convertible debt investment, was that Strategy would be a one-way accumulator of Bitcoin. Buy and hold, never sell, use financial engineering to fund operations without touching the stack.

JPMorgan’s view is that Strategy needs to proactively rebuild its dollar cushion, likely through additional equity offerings or other capital markets activity, rather than risk further Bitcoin sales that could erode the thesis investors signed up for.

Regulatory headwinds aren’t helping

Adding to the bearish tone, JPMorgan also lowered its estimated probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year to below 50%. The legislation was expected to provide much-needed regulatory clarity for digital assets in the US, and its diminished prospects remove a potential tailwind that institutional investors had been watching closely.

What this means for investors

The 6.3-month coverage ratio is the number to watch. If Strategy announces a new equity offering in the coming weeks, it would signal management agrees with JPMorgan’s assessment and is moving to shore up the cash position. That would likely be dilutive to existing shareholders in the short term but reassuring in the medium term.

For the broader Bitcoin market, Strategy is expected to continue accumulating BTC through 2026, which provides a steady source of demand. But if cash pressures force larger liquidations, even temporarily, the psychological impact on a market that views Strategy as a bellwether for institutional conviction could amplify any resulting price move well beyond what the raw selling volume would justify.

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