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Combined trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket dropped 14.5% in August to $45.33 billion, marking the first meaningful pullback after months of relentless growth in the prediction markets sector.
The decline follows a record-setting July that saw $50.59 billion in combined volume across the platforms. That peak had a very specific catalyst: the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19 and turbocharged sports betting contracts across both platforms.
The World Cup effect, in reverse
July’s $50.59 billion represented a 7.8% jump from June’s revised figure of $46.95 billion.
Sports contracts have accounted for over 88% of recent activity on Kalshi. Kalshi maintained 85-90% of its comparable weekly volume heading into late August, while Polymarket’s offshore platform saw a steeper contraction.
In July, Kalshi contributed $37.7 billion in volume, roughly 74.5% of the combined total across both platforms.
NFL steps up, but can’t fill the gap
NFL preseason markets generated $167.8 million across Kalshi, Polymarket Global, and Polymarket US in the week ending August 16. Kalshi handled approximately 79% of that activity.
Kalshi also posted a notable milestone despite the broader downturn. For the week ending August 30, the platform’s weekly contract volume exceeded $10 billion for the first time, hitting $10.17 billion.
Different platforms, different audiences
Kalshi, operating as a CFTC-regulated exchange in the US, has leaned heavily into sports. Polymarket Global, meanwhile, has attracted more interest in macro and esports markets.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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