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Two of the most valuable companies on earth are racing to ring the opening bell, and the crowd betting real money on the outcome has made its call: Anthropic gets there first.
Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market platform, assigns a 93% probability to Anthropic going public before OpenAI. That is not a rounding error. It reflects a genuine shift in market sentiment that has played out over the course of 2026, as Anthropic’s financial profile improved and OpenAI’s timeline slipped.
How the race unfolded
Both companies submitted S-1 registration statements to the SEC in June 2026. Anthropic filed on June 1, OpenAI followed a week later on June 8. On paper, a seven-day gap is almost nothing. In practice, it set the tone for everything that followed.
Anthropic is targeting an October 2026 debut on the Nasdaq. OpenAI, meanwhile, has reportedly seen its own listing slip into 2027, delayed by operational challenges. When the front-runner stumbles and the challenger keeps its pace, the odds swing fast.
Kalshi’s IPO-related contracts for these two companies have drawn millions in trading volume, with one tracked series alone reaching $1.7 million.
Anthropic’s revenue run rate is now projected at $65 billion, compared to roughly $40 billion for OpenAI. That gap, if accurate, inverts the intuitive assumption that the more famous company is also the more profitable one.
The trillion-dollar valuation
By July 2026, Anthropic’s private valuation had climbed to approximately $1.11 trillion, lifted by secondary market activity following the S-1 filing.
OpenAI’s situation is more complicated. The company is in the middle of a structural transformation, converting from a nonprofit-controlled entity to a more conventional for-profit corporation. That transition involves legal, governance, and regulatory layers that take time to resolve. An IPO on top of that restructuring is a lot to ask in a single calendar year.
Anthropic does not carry that complexity. It was structured as a public benefit corporation from early in its history, which simplifies the path to a public listing considerably. Simpler corporate structure plus stronger near-term financials plus a first-mover filing advantage adds up to the 93% probability Kalshi’s market is currently pricing.
What the IPO race means for AI investors
For the prediction market angle specifically, the 93% probability on Kalshi is itself a tradeable position. Contracts pricing in a near-certainty leave little room for upside if you are betting with the consensus, but they do create asymmetric opportunities for anyone who thinks the market has it wrong. If OpenAI resolves its structural issues faster than expected and files for an accelerated listing, that 7% probability starts looking interesting.
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