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The AI buildout has a physics problem. U.S. data centers are projected to need roughly 68 gigawatts of new power capacity between 2026 and 2028, according to a Morgan Stanley report from mid-August 2026. About 30 gigawatts of that can be covered by existing construction and contracted grid capacity. The remaining 38 gigawatts has no clear answer yet.
Why the grid cannot keep up
Grid interconnection requests in some regions of the United States take five to seven years to process and complete. The hyperscalers building AI infrastructure want capacity now, or at minimum within the next two to three years. Those two timelines do not overlap.
That mismatch is pushing data center operators toward what the industry calls “behind-the-meter” solutions, power generated on-site rather than pulled from the broader grid. Morgan Stanley estimates that natural gas turbines alone could add 15 to 20 gigawatts of capacity through this approach. Other technologies in play include fuel cells and nuclear co-location, where a data center is physically built adjacent to an existing or new nuclear plant.
Local opposition and labor shortages are adding friction even to these faster paths. The report flags both as significant obstacles.
The companies positioned to benefit
Three names surface in the Morgan Stanley analysis as primary beneficiaries of the infrastructure gap: GE Vernova, Eaton, and Vertiv.
GE Vernova’s gas turbine backlog has grown from 100 gigawatts to 116 gigawatts, with the company targeting 125 gigawatts by year-end. The data center segment has been a key driver, with orders in that vertical reportedly doubling.
Eaton, which makes electrical components and power management systems, reported an 85% jump in data center orders during the second quarter of 2026.
Vertiv raised its full-year revenue guidance to $14 billion after posting 24% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2026, with quarterly revenue reaching $3.27 billion.
Microsoft and Amazon alone are projected to spend around $785 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, with that figure approaching $1 trillion in 2027. Global data center construction spending is expected to approach $2.9 trillion through the end of 2028. Hyperscaler lease commitments are projected to exceed $1.2 trillion over the same period.
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