Netanyahu coalition stuck at 49 seats, opposition holds 61-seat majority: poll

Netanyahu’s coalition is stuck at 49 seats for a third week, with the opposition holding a stable 61-seat majority, according to a new Maariv poll. The likelihood of Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago.

Market reaction

The market for Netanyahu leaving office by April 30 is barely moving at 0.8% YES. The June 30 odds suggest traders are still pricing in some probability of a coalition collapse or resignation. The term structure shows a 5-point increase from April 30 to June 30, meaning traders assign a higher risk as the window extends.

Daily face value across these markets is $72,539, but actual USDC traded remains light at $1,475. It takes $7,272 to move the June odds 5 points, a thin order book vulnerable to large trades. The most significant recent move was a modest 1-point decline in the June 30 market.

Why it matters

The Maariv poll shows a 12-seat gap between coalition and opposition, a deficit that has now persisted for three consecutive weeks. Military operations have not translated into polling gains; voters appear fatigued with continuous conflict. At 5.5¢, buying YES on Netanyahu leaving by June 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 18x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a coalition collapse or legal troubles will force Netanyahu out within two months.

What to watch

Upcoming Knesset no-confidence votes or Supreme Court rulings are the most likely catalysts. Either could fracture the coalition and move these markets sharply.

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