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A fund built on prediction models
Oraclum Capital operates the ORCA BASON Fund, which launched in early 2023 and trades weekly equity index options. The fund’s strategy is built around something called the BASON network-analysis and prediction technique, a proprietary model that Vukovic originally developed for political forecasting before pivoting it toward financial markets.
Vukovic holds a PhD in economics from Oxford, and his academic pedigree was a core part of the fund’s pitch to investors. By late 2024, the fund had grown to approximately $23 million to $25 million in assets under management, with the firm claiming gross returns exceeding 50% on investment.
Regulatory problems were already piling up
Croatia’s financial supervisory authority, Hanfa, had been circling Oraclum Capital’s operations for months. In rulings issued in July and December 2025, Hanfa banned the distribution and trading of ORCA BASON Fund units in Croatia entirely.
The Croatian regulator’s concern was specific: Oraclum Capital had been funneling retail investor access through a cooperative structure called Zadruga Glas poduzetnika 2.0. Under Croatian law, complex investment funds like ORCA BASON are restricted to professional investors. Using a cooperative as a workaround to let everyday retail investors participate was, in Hanfa’s view, a clear violation.
Hanfa ordered the cooperative to stop providing investment services to ineligible small investors and mandated that approximately 3.3 million euros in collected funds be returned or redirected through lawful channels. Vukovic was personally identified as an active participant in the communications and actions that enabled the unauthorized service model.
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