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Reform UK and the Greens are threatening Labour’s control in London, and the “Starmer out by June 30, 2026” market has jumped to 49% YES.
Labour faces the possibility of losing control of several councils, including Barking and Dagenham, to Reform UK and the Greens. The June 30 market moved from 42% to 49% over the past week, while the December 31 market sits at 68.5% YES.
The term structure shows a 20-point gap between the June and December contracts. Traders are pricing in a major catalyst in the second half of the year. The June market, with 67 days remaining, reflects more immediate pressure on Starmer as Labour struggles to hold a city it once dominated comfortably.
Daily volume in the Starmer markets is $15,446 in USDC for the June contract and $14,116 for December. It takes just $906 to move the June market 5 points, making it thin enough for sharp swings. The December market is thicker, with $6,049 of depth to move 5 points.
The London elections matter here because they could accelerate a leadership crisis. Labour’s national poll numbers have already been sliding, and significant council losses on May 7 would add concrete evidence to the case against Starmer. At 49¢, a YES share on a June exit pays $1 if Starmer leaves, a potential 2x return. Traders are pricing real risk of a leadership change.
Watch for the May 7 election results. If Labour’s losses are large, expect heavy activity in the Starmer markets. A leadership challenge or a key resignation could move odds fast. Any public positioning from internal rivals like Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting would be a direct signal.
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