Reserve Bank of India to hold rates through 2026, says Reuters poll

India’s central bank isn’t touching the rate lever anytime soon. A Reuters poll of 72 economists found that 68 of them, roughly 95%, expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep its benchmark repo rate parked at 5.25% through the end of 2026, with growth concerns firmly in the driver’s seat over inflation worries.

The poll, conducted from July 21 to 27, paints a picture of a central bank in wait-and-see mode.

Why the RBI is staying put

The core logic is straightforward: the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices are creating enough economic headwinds that cutting rates to stimulate growth feels premature, while hiking them to combat inflation feels reckless.

Governor Sanjay Malhotra has emphasized a cautious, data-driven approach amid these external uncertainties. The RBI held rates unanimously in its June meeting and did the same in April. The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-5, is widely expected to produce the same result.

The RBI has also revised its economic forecasts for fiscal year 2027, and the numbers tell the story. Real GDP growth is now pegged at 6.6%, a downward revision reflecting the drag from external shocks. Meanwhile, the inflation projection has been bumped up to 5.1%, acknowledging that cost pressures from energy markets aren’t going away quietly.

What stable rates mean for markets

The rupee faces its own set of pressures. Rising oil prices hit India’s current account particularly hard because the country imports roughly 80% of its crude oil needs.

For now, the RBI is maintaining what it calls a “neutral” policy stance, keeping options open in both directions, neither leaning toward cuts nor hikes.

The crypto connection

The RBI did not mention crypto or digital assets in any of its recent policy discussions, and there is no new regulatory framework signaling any change in its historically skeptical stance toward digital currencies.

With India’s inflation projection now at 5.1%, real returns on traditional savings instruments look less attractive. That environment has historically nudged some retail investors toward alternative assets, including crypto, as a hedge against purchasing power erosion.

Consistency in earlier 2026 polls had already pointed toward this outcome. Predictions throughout the year showed a steady expectation that the repo rate would hold at 5.25%, meaning this latest survey confirms a trend rather than revealing a surprise.

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