Roberto Sánchez leads Peru election by 24,000 votes with 95.8% counted

With 95.89% of votes tallied, Roberto Sánchez leads Rafael López Aliaga by more than 24,000 votes in Peru’s 2026 presidential election. López Aliaga’s chances of winning sit at 2.1% YES, down from 4% yesterday.

## Market reaction

The market for López Aliaga’s victory has declined steadily, from 8% a week ago to its current level, with 3,800 actas still to be processed. The market for López Aliaga’s advancement to the runoff remains inactive, and the candidates advancing market hasn’t moved either, with no new developments supporting his bid. Trading volume is at $21,560 in actual USDC. It takes $4,598 to move the price by 5 points, and the largest price move was a 1-point spike.

## Why it matters

Sánchez’s 24,000-vote margin with only 3,800 actas remaining leaves López Aliaga almost no mathematical path forward. Despite López Aliaga’s claims of fraud, the market has priced in near-certainty against a dramatic shift. At 2.1¢ per YES share, a payout of $1 represents a 47.6x return, reflecting the long odds traders assign to a López Aliaga comeback.

## What to watch

Any announcements from Peru’s National Jury of Elections and the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales regarding the final actas. Confirmation of Sánchez’s lead in the remaining count would push López Aliaga’s odds closer to zero.

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