Silver Price Faces Make-or-Break Week Ahead of Jackson Hole Fed Speech

The silver price trades near $69.38 after two failed attempts to break $70. Friday’s weekly close will decide the next direction.

July inflation data arrives Wednesday, while Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole address as Federal Reserve chair on Friday. Both land before the candle closes.

Dollar Weakness Meets a Hawkish Fed Risk

The US dollar has slipped to three-month lows after the Treasury announced bond buyback plans. Gold reached a three-month high on the same driver.

Silver has followed. The metal has gained roughly 18% over the past month and 78% over the past year. However, it remains down about 3.6% in 2026.

Traders now face an unusual setup. Markets are pricing in roughly 40% odds of a September rate hike, not a cut. Three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of tighter policy in July.

Physical demand offers a floor. The silver market is heading for a sixth consecutive annual deficit, while COMEX inventories have fallen below 100 million ounces.

July PCE inflation data arrives Wednesday before the US open. Economists expect the headline rate to ease to 3.6% from 3.7%, while core inflation holds at 3.3%.

REMINDER:

🇺🇸 U.S. PCE inflation drops today at 8:30 AM ET.

Previous: 3.7%
Forecast: 3.6%

Below 3.6% → bulls get fuel
At 3.6% → relief, but watch the reaction
Above 3.6% → hawkish fears could hit risk assets

And this is the last major inflation print before Jackson Hole,… pic.twitter.com/msu9wMxZNB

— Crypto King (@CryptoKing4Ever) August 26, 2026

A softer print would cool September hike odds and add pressure to the dollar. A firmer number would strengthen the hawks and likely cap silver below $70.

Weekly Fibonacci Levels Define the 2026 Range

Silver has spent 2026 reacting to the same Fibonacci set drawn from the 2025 rally. The 0.382 level at $89.07 rejected the metal in May, when price wicked to $89.38 before reversing.

At the other end, the 0.786 level at $54.51 held the July low of $54.77. Silver has since broken its descending trendline and reached the 0.618 at $68.88.

That level matches the $68 target flagged in July. Reclaiming it would open the 0.5 retracement near $78.98, though a trendline break alone does not confirm a trend reversal.

XAG weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly MACD adds weight. Its histogram has stayed red since March and is now close to turning green for the first time since May 2025.

Two caveats apply. The indicator remains below zero, so the signal suggests fading downside momentum rather than a confirmed uptrend. A similar histogram recovery in April preceded a lower high and a fresh low.

XAG MACD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Silver Price Prediction Hinges on $62.87 Support

The daily chart looks stronger than the weekly. Silver has built higher lows since July 17 and escaped its descending channel.

The $62.87 level marks the dividing line. Buyers broke it on August 7, retested it on August 19, and held. A five-session rally to $69.74 followed.

XAG daily chart. Source: TradingView

Momentum is cooling, however. The relative strength index sits near 65 and has stopped rising, even as price set a higher high last week.

The setup is therefore conditional. Acceptance above $68.88 would leave $70 to $72 as the first hurdle, then thin resistance toward $78.98.

Losing $62.87 would break the daily uptrend and reopen $54.51 and the long-term support at $49.81.

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