Sinopec chairman says China’s oil demand likely peaked in 2025

The head of China’s biggest refiner just moved the timeline on one of the most consequential calls in global energy. Sinopec Chairman Hou Qijun told an earnings briefing in Hong Kong that China’s oil demand probably peaked in 2025, a full two years earlier than the company had previously projected.

The forecast keeps shrinking

Sinopec had been working with a 2027 peak estimate, itself a revision from even later targets floated as recently as late 2024. The company expected Chinese consumption would top out at no more than 800 million metric tons annually.

Sinopec isn’t the only major Chinese energy player reading the room this way. CNPC, the country’s largest oil and gas producer, had already flagged that refined oil product consumption was peaking as early as 2023.

The acceleration from a projected 2026-2030 peak window down to 2025 represents a meaningful compression.

What’s driving the shift

Three forces are converging. First, EV penetration in China has been extraordinary. Second, China’s broader economic restructuring is tilting away from energy-intensive heavy industry toward services, technology, and higher-value manufacturing. Third, Beijing’s low-carbon policy framework provides both regulatory push and financial incentive, aligned with the country’s carbon-peak commitment by 2030.

Global ripple effects

For energy traders, the implications are immediate. Long-dated crude oil futures may need to reprice to reflect lower demand growth assumptions. Sinopec itself has been diversifying into hydrogen and other clean energy businesses.

India is often cited as the next great source of oil demand growth, but India’s economy is roughly one-fifth the size of China’s.

The broader energy transition narrative gains significant credibility from this announcement. When the chairman of the world’s largest refiner by throughput volume says oil demand in his home market has peaked, it carries a different weight than the same claim from an environmental advocacy group or a solar panel manufacturer.

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