Solana Price Prediction: Can $SOL Overcome Unlocks and Market Volatility?

• Solana wallets with over 100 $SOL drop by 2.24%.
• FTX estate unlock to release 9.75M SOL on March 1, 2025.
• SOL price and market cap face volatility after January surge.

Solana ($SOL) has seen a significant shift in its market dynamics over the past few weeks. On chain data reveals a decline in the number of wallets holding more than 100 $SOL, dropping by 2.24%. This downward trend has caught the attention of investors amid the imminent release of a major $SOL unlock on March 1, 2025.

Declining Wallet Numbers

Recently, the number of wallets with more than 100 $SOL, decreased from 154,653 to 151,184. This decline, captured over a two-week span, reflects a gradual reduction in the number of major holders. This decline suggests a drop in investor confidence or some holders shifting assets. The reduction has occurred amid mixed sentiment around Solana’s performance in the market, especially with upcoming large unlock events.

Upcoming FTX Estate Unlock

The Solana market faces another challenge, with the FTX estate scheduled to release 9.75 million SOL tokens on March 1. This release is the largest single unlock of $SOL and may have a significant effect on the coin’s value. The cumulative unlock schedule indicates that over the next few months, a massive volume of $SOL will be unlocked, likely increasing selling pressure. These unlocks could lead to market volatility, especially because they involve large quantities.

Volatility and Price Action

Solana’s price has experienced considerable volatility in recent months, as seen in various spot inflow and outflow data. A dramatic spike in inflows was seen in mid-January amid a brief surge in $SOL’s price to over $250. However, after the spike, the price dropped which raised concerns about market volatility and liquidity.

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Moreover, a recent analysis of total liquidations indicates that Solana faces a rise in liquidation events, with more shorts and longs being liquidated in recent weeks. This increased volatility reflects the broader uncertainty in the Solana market, as large players and retail investors navigate the price fluctuations.

Solana’s Market Position

Although Solana’s price recently crossed the $250 mark, it is pulled back and now faces consolidation under $200. Analysts suggest that unless the token regains its position above $210, it could face significant downward pressure. This could result in a massive sell-off, raising concerns about its future market position.

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Although SOL saw an initial rise in 2025, marked by a steady market cap increase, the overall trend appears to be reversing. Solana’s market cap, which is around the $200 billion mark, shows signs of a slow decline in correlation with the token’s price. The combination of token unlocks, declining wallet counts, and volatile price action increases uncertainty in the future outlook for Solana.

The upcoming unlock events and fluctuating investor sentiment suggest that further volatility is on the horizon for this once-promising blockchain network.