SpaceX shares fall from post-IPO highs, leaving average buyer nearly underwater

SpaceX shares dropped as much as 7% on Thursday to $178, putting the stock roughly in line with its volume-weighted average price of just under $180. That means the average person who bought shares after the initial pop is now sitting on essentially zero gains, or worse.

From record IPO to reality check

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, raising a record $75 billion in the process. The stock debuted on Nasdaq the following day under the ticker SPCX, opening around $150 and closing near $161, a gain of roughly 19-20% on day one.

From there, momentum carried shares even higher. At the peak, the stock was trading 40-50% above its IPO price, reaching nearly $192. That rally briefly pushed SpaceX’s market capitalization above $2 trillion, placing it among the five or six most valuable companies on the planet.

The mid-June declines of 5-7% have brought shares into the $178-$190 range. With the volume-weighted average price hovering just under $180, and shares now trading at $178, the average post-IPO buyer is either breakeven or slightly underwater.

Who’s holding the bag, and who’s holding steady

The investor base for this IPO was a mix of heavyweight institutions and retail buyers. BlackRock alone invested approximately $5 billion. Institutional investors who got in at the $135 IPO price are still sitting on roughly 32% gains even at Thursday’s low.

Lock-ups, insider sales, and what comes next

The immediate concern for SpaceX shareholders is what happens when lock-up periods expire. In a typical IPO, company insiders and early investors are restricted from selling their shares for a set period, usually 90 to 180 days after the debut. For a company with a pre-IPO private market valuation around $1.5 trillion, the number of people eager to realize gains is substantial.

There’s also the lingering question of a potential merger with xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence venture. Speculation about that deal has circulated for months. If it materializes, it would fundamentally change the investment thesis, potentially adding an AI dimension to what is currently an aerospace and satellite internet play.

Despite Musk’s well-documented ties to the digital asset world, this IPO carried zero cryptocurrency associations. No token launch, no blockchain integration. It was pure traditional equity.

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