Strait of Hormuz reopening eases Bitcoin volatility amid ceasefire

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid a ceasefire has eased energy supply fears, affecting Bitcoin volatility. Bitcoin’s chance of hitting $80,000 by the end of April is at 15% YES.

Market reaction

The ceasefire has calmed commodity markets, with indirect effects on Bitcoin pricing. Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April now carries reduced odds, while the question of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 has gained traction. The April 30 contract reflects these shifts as the deadline approaches.

Why it matters

Trading volume in the relevant markets remains thin, but the sentiment shift is real. The Strait’s reopening has likely reduced some downward pressure on Bitcoin. With less than a week left in April, the thin order book and low USDC volume mean that large orders can move prices disproportionately. Price fluctuations in this environment reflect sentiment more than fundamental changes.

What to watch

The Strait reopening doesn’t guarantee sustained stability. Any further geopolitical disruptions to energy markets could ripple into Bitcoin. Watch for moves from Jerome Powell and Michael Saylor, along with unexpected geopolitical shifts, as these could quickly change Bitcoin’s trajectory.

A YES share at 15¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $80,000, a 6.67x return. That bet requires a major rally within a week.

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