1 hour ago
9
Ship transits in the Strait of Hormuz fell to 35 last week, down from 78. The market for 80 ships transiting the strait on any day by April 30 sits at 26% YES.
Market reaction
The 80 ships by April 30 contract dropped from 51% a week ago to 26% YES, with six days remaining. The traffic normalization market reflects similar pessimism given the ongoing blockade and U.S.-Iran tensions.
Why it matters
Roughly 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so a sustained drop from 78 to 35 daily transits has direct consequences for supply expectations. The U.S. and Iran remain in a standoff with no public movement toward de-escalation. Combined daily face value on these contracts is $40,514, but actual USDC traded is only $1,797. The cost to move odds by five percentage points is just $542, meaning a single large order could swing the price without reflecting broader market sentiment.
What to watch
At 26¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 3.85x return. That would require more than doubling current daily traffic in under a week. Any communication from U.S. Central Command or a shift in Iran’s posture on strait access could move these contracts, but the blockade has not loosened so far.
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