TD Securities’ Molly Brooks warns of asymmetric risks from Fed comments at Jackson Hole

Molly Brooks, US rates strategist at TD Securities, is flagging what she calls an “asymmetric risk” heading into next week’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The core idea: dovish surprises from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh could trigger larger market moves than hawkish ones, creating an uneven risk landscape for anyone holding duration-sensitive positions.

The warning comes as long-end Treasury yields have been climbing back up, a trend Brooks has been tracking closely in recent appearances. With Warsh set to deliver his capstone speech on August 29, his first major public address since taking over as Fed Chair on May 22, traders are bracing for a week that could reset the rate outlook entirely.

Why the long end keeps selling off

Brooks has pointed to a combination of factors driving the backup in long-dated Treasury yields. Issuance patterns in the 20-year and 30-year maturities have weighed on prices, while investor positioning has left the market vulnerable to further selling pressure at the back end of the curve.

TD Securities analysts expect a prolonged period of higher policy rates as the curve adjusts.

What makes Jackson Hole different this time

Warsh, who took the reins in late May, has operated with what observers describe as a leaner communications approach. Fewer public remarks, less forward guidance, and a preference for letting data speak louder than press conferences.

When the symposium theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” the speech could veer into territory that reshapes expectations about digital payments infrastructure, fintech regulation, or the Fed’s own technological ambitions.

Brooks appeared on Bloomberg on August 13 to lay out her framework for the event. Her core argument centers on market positioning: because so many participants are already leaning toward a hawkish read of Warsh’s likely stance, any dovish surprise would catch the market offsides and produce an outsized reaction. A hawkish speech, by contrast, would largely confirm what’s already priced in.

Fixed income under pressure

The vulnerabilities Brooks identifies at the long end of the Treasury curve are not new, but they’re intensifying at an inconvenient moment. TD Securities has been consistently warning clients about curve dynamics that diverge from the simple “Fed cuts, yields fall” narrative that dominated earlier rate cycles. In this environment, the shape of the curve matters as much as its level, and the long end has its own supply-demand dynamics that operate somewhat independently from the Fed’s overnight rate.

Warsh’s speech lands on August 29, giving markets a full trading day to digest whatever he delivers before the weekend.

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