The 18-Year Housing Cycle Says the Next Market Crash Is Close

Investors are watching stocks and Bitcoin for the next major peak. Popular macro analyst Jason Pizzino thinks the first warning has already arrived from US housing.

His thesis uses an 18-year property cycle drawn from roughly 220 years of US sales data. The current cycle began around 2011–2012 and places the housing peak in 2025–26, with a possible trough around 2029–30.

“Once everyone’s in, you’re at the peak,” Pizzino said.

The latest data does not prove the cycle. But it does make the call harder to dismiss. US home prices rose 1.5% year-on-year in June, while falling in real terms for a 13th straight month. 

July new-home sales dropped 10.5%. The median price fell to $393,800, its lowest in five years. Builder confidence sits at 35, far below the neutral 50 line.

18-year US Real Estate and Economic Cycle. Source: Substack

Housing First. Stocks Could Be Next

Pizzino’s key signal is D.R. Horton. The homebuilder peaked before the broader market during the last housing cycle. Its late-2024 peak, using the same pattern, points to a possible stock-market top around late 2026 or early 2027.

D.R. Horton closed Friday at $142.75. Pizzino says a break below roughly $130 would strengthen his case.

Stocks remain near records. The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 on Friday, about 1% below its August 13 record. Strong August jobs data also pushed market odds of a September Fed rate hike to around 60%.

D.R. Horton Monthly With the 27-month Measure. Source: YouTube

Bitcoin Is the Wild Card

Bitcoin trades near $79,700 today, up sharply from its July low around $57,700. It has also reclaimed its 200-day moving average.

Pizzino thinks Bitcoin can rally further, though with smaller returns. His rough scenario reaches about $120,000 from the July low. He sees $180,000 as much harder if credit keeps tightening.

Another analyst, Benjamin Cowen, is more cautious about treating the cycle as a trading signal.

“I buy index funds every single month… even if I think we’re going to have a correction,” said Cowen.

That may be the most useful takeaway. The cycle gives investors a warning zone, not an expiry date. Pizzino’s own advice is simpler: have a plan before the credit disappears.

“Trade the market you have,” Cowen said, “not the market you want.”

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