1 hour ago
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Senator Thom Tillis has lifted his block on Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve Chair nomination after the DOJ dropped its investigation into Jerome Powell. The May 15 confirmation market now sits at 90% YES, up from 29% yesterday, while the May 1 market remains at just 0.9% YES.
The May 1 market is practically unchanged with negligible volume. The May 15 market jumped from 29% yesterday, a 20-point spike that reflects traders now pricing in a clear confirmation path. The June 30 market is at 98% YES, suggesting near-certainty about eventual confirmation even if the May 15 deadline slips.
Combined daily volume across the confirmation markets is $19,708 in USDC. The order book depth on the May 15 market shows it takes $1,590 to move the price 5 points, which points to real liquidity behind the current odds.
Tillis was the main obstacle to Warsh’s confirmation. His reversal, prompted by the DOJ decision, opens the way for an expedited Senate process. At 90¢, a YES position pays $1 if Warsh is confirmed by May 15, a 1.11x return. That bet requires believing the Senate moves quickly over the next few weeks.
Watch for Senate Banking Committee scheduling and public statements from swing-vote senators. Both will determine whether the May 15 timeline holds.
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