Traders turn most positive on US dollar since 2015, and crypto should pay attention

Speculative traders have piled into the US dollar at a pace not seen in over a decade. Net long positions reached $27.8 billion as of June 9, marking the highest level since February 2025 and capping 13 consecutive weeks of bullish dollar bets according to CFTC data.

What’s driving the dollar surge

The catalyst is familiar but no less potent: geopolitical instability. The escalation of Middle East conflict in late February 2026, involving direct actions by the US and Israel against Iran, sent oil prices climbing and investors scrambling for safety.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen roughly 1.6% since the onset of the conflict.

The positioning data tells an even more dramatic story. Before the Middle East tensions escalated, traders were sitting on approximately $22 billion in short dollar positions. The swing from $22 billion short to $27.8 billion long represents a nearly $50 billion reversal in sentiment.

Bank of America FX strategist Alex Cohen has noted that fundamentals remain favorable for the greenback, suggesting the bullish positioning could persist as long as geopolitical instability and supportive US economic data continue to underpin demand.

Leveraged funds have also pushed bearish yen bets to their most negative levels since 2017, further illustrating the broad-based appetite for dollar strength across currency markets.

The crypto connection

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have shown a well-documented inverse correlation with the DXY (the US Dollar Index) over multiple market cycles. When the dollar rallies, crypto tends to struggle. When the dollar weakens, risk assets often catch a bid.

The current environment creates a particularly challenging setup for digital assets. Rising oil prices feed into inflation expectations, which in turn support the case for tighter monetary policy or at least a delay in any easing. Tighter policy means higher real yields on dollar assets, which makes holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin less attractive on a relative basis.

What this means for investors

The notable absence of crypto-specific coverage around this CFTC positioning shift is itself telling. Crypto markets have been focused on protocol-level developments and token-specific narratives, but the macro backdrop is quietly building a headwind that could override those individual stories.

Traders should be watching the CFTC positioning data closely in coming weeks. If net long dollar bets continue expanding beyond the current $27.8 billion level, the pressure on risk assets could intensify. Conversely, any de-escalation in the Middle East or a shift in US economic data that weakens the case for dollar strength could provide relief.

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