Trump advisers warn Iran conflict may extend through end of presidency: report

Advisers to President Donald Trump have reportedly warned that the ongoing conflict with Iran could extend through the remainder of his presidency. Despite Trump’s public statements suggesting the conflict might conclude following the midterm elections, the Jerusalem Post reports that his advisers have expressed concerns about a prolonged engagement. The U.S.-Iran war, which began in February 2026, has seen continued military actions, including U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. This sustained conflict appears to be affecting market sentiment regarding the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution, specifically the inclusion of reconstruction funding in any potential U.S.-Iran deal by the end of 2026.

Recent activity suggests a decrease in the perceived likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal being finalized within the year. The sub-market for Iran Reconstruction Funding’s inclusion in such a deal has seen a slight dip in YES pricing, now at 11.5% from 12% a day prior. Observers note that the ongoing military exchanges and the warning of prolonged conflict may be contributing to this shift, reflecting skepticism about reaching a comprehensive agreement soon.

The report from the Jerusalem Post appears consistent with a decreased likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict, impacting related prediction markets. The continued military engagement and the adviser’s warnings align with a moderate expected move in market pricing, as participants reassess the prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests a decreased likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal including Iran Reconstruction Funding by the end of 2026.
• The ongoing conflict and adviser’s warnings appear consistent with a scenario where prolonged military engagement is expected.
• Pricing in related markets reflects uncertainty about reaching a comprehensive agreement within the current year.

What to Watch

The duration of the U.S.-Iran conflict remains a key factor influencing market sentiment. Any developments that could lead to de-escalation, such as diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire agreements, may alter current market pricing. Watch for statements from key actors like President Trump and Iranian officials, as well as any military actions that could impact the potential for negotiations. Changes in market sentiment may occur if conditions suggest a shift toward resolution or further entrenchment in conflict.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.