1 hour ago
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Trump canceled the Whitakoff and Kushner visit to Pakistan, originally planned for ceasefire discussions with Iranian representatives. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropped to 4.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 61% a week ago.
The visit was a primary channel for peace negotiations, and its cancellation removed the most visible diplomatic pathway. The May 31 market trades at 31.5% YES, down from 38% yesterday. The June 30 market holds at 48.0% YES. The 27-point gap between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders expect a possible catalyst after the April deadline passes.
Markets for Iranian demands also fell. Odds of Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief sit at 10.5% YES. Volume here is just $1,944 in USDC, meaning the cost to move the market is minimal and prices are volatile.
Trump’s dismissive comments about negotiations suggest the U.S. is prioritizing military pressure over diplomacy, consistent with ongoing operations under Operation Epic Fury. Buying YES at 4.5¢ pays $1 if a deal is struck by April 30, a 22.2x return, but that requires a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough with no visible mechanism for one.
Watch for statements from Trump’s administration or Iranian officials on social media, which could move these markets quickly. Any news from Pakistan about back-channel contacts would also be relevant.
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