Trump convenes White House Situation Room as Strait of Hormuz closes

Trump has convened the White House Situation Room following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, per Axios. On Polymarket, WTI Crude hitting $160 in April sits at 1.4% YES.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, traders are pricing in oil supply disruption risk. The market for WTI hitting $160 in April registered a 25-point spike recently but has settled back to 1.4% YES. The spike suggests traders briefly assigned a higher probability to that price level before pulling back.

The market is extremely thin. Face value is $72,164, but actual USDC traded is just $704, meaning small trades can move prices significantly. It takes only $1,655 to shift the market 5 percentage points. The 25-point spike itself is a product of this illiquidity: geopolitical news hitting a shallow order book.

A YES share at 1.4¢ pays $1 if WTI reaches $160 in April, a 71x return. For that to happen, substantial supply disruptions would need to materialize within the next 12 days. The thin market depth means even modest geopolitical signals could produce outsized price swings.

The ceasefire expires in three days. A failure to extend it could raise tensions further. Watch for any announcements from Trump on the ceasefire extension, statements from OPEC+, and new military developments that could affect oil supplies.

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