Trump expresses confidence in US-India trade deal after talks

President Donald Trump says he’s confident the US and India will finalize a trade agreement, pointing to his personal relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a driving force behind the progress.

The statement came after a week of negotiations in New Delhi, running from June 1-5, led by US chief negotiator Brendan Lynch. The talks were aimed at hammering out an interim trade agreement that both countries have been working toward since early 2025.

What’s actually on the table

The current negotiations build on a framework established in February 2026, when a joint statement from both governments outlined the bones of a deal. The key terms: the US would cut tariffs on Indian goods from 50% down to 18%. Washington would also eliminate a separate 25% punitive tariff that was tied to India’s purchases of Russian oil.

In exchange, Modi committed to halting Indian purchases of Russian oil, a concession that threads energy geopolitics directly into what might otherwise look like a straightforward trade negotiation.

The formal process for a full Bilateral Trade Agreement, or BTA, was initiated back on February 13, 2025, when Trump and Modi kicked off negotiations. The interim deal currently being discussed is designed as a stepping stone toward that more comprehensive pact.

Even as both sides project optimism, the US has introduced new tariff proposals that could hit certain imports with duties of 10-12.5%. Public hearings for those proposals are scheduled for July 7, 2026, which adds a layer of complexity to the timeline.

What this means for investors

If the interim agreement goes through with the tariff reductions outlined in the February framework, companies on both sides that deal in cross-border trade stand to benefit directly. Lower tariffs mean lower costs, which either translate to fatter margins or more competitive pricing.

For crypto markets specifically, this deal doesn’t appear to have any direct implications. Digital assets aren’t part of the current negotiation framework, and neither side has signaled any intention to include them.

The wildcard is the July 7 public hearings on those new US tariff proposals. If additional duties of 10-12.5% are implemented on certain imports while an interim deal is still being finalized, it could create friction that slows momentum.

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