Trump may consider strikes on Iran if provoked, says former advisor

Victoria Coates, who served as Donald Trump’s Deputy National Security Advisor in 2017, has indicated that while the U.S. President has refrained from striking Iranian infrastructure so far, such action could become necessary if provoked by Iran. This statement comes amid ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran over strategic issues like access to the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Trump’s administration has previously threatened strikes on key Iranian infrastructure but has held back, reportedly to maintain room for negotiation and potential ceasefire agreements.

Key Takeaways

• Coates’s comments suggest a potential for increased military action, which appears consistent with a decreased likelihood of resolving the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026.
• Market pricing indicates a decline in the probability of an immediate end to the blockade, with the July 31 market seeing a notable drop to 21.5% YES.
• The possibility of strikes on Iranian infrastructure may lead to further volatility in related markets, reflecting uncertainty about future U.S. actions.

What to Watch

Watch for any official statements from the Trump administration regarding military actions or negotiations with Iran. Developments such as a confirmed strike or a public commitment to a peaceful resolution could significantly impact the odds of ending the Iranian blockade. Additionally, any changes in Iran’s actions or responses could alter the current market sentiment, influencing the perceived likelihood of a blockade resolution.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.