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President Trump is doubling down on trade confrontations heading into the second half of 2026, wielding tariffs across dozens of bilateral negotiations. The twist that crypto investors should care about: while the trade agenda gets more aggressive, the administration’s digital asset policies remain remarkably separate and supportive.
The trade landscape keeps getting more complicated
The administration’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda, released in March, centers on the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade program. The US uses a 10% baseline tariff as the opening bid, then negotiates higher reciprocal rates from there.
Multiple deals struck in 2025 landed around 15% baseline tariffs. That’s meaningfully higher than pre-2025 levels, and businesses across sectors are still absorbing the cost increases.
In June 2026, Trump signaled he might terminate the USMCA, the trade agreement governing commerce between the US, Mexico, and Canada, rather than renew it before the July 1 deadline. Discussions are reportedly ongoing, but the threat alone sent ripples through North American supply chains.
Meanwhile, proposed Section 301 actions targeting forced labor could hit dozens of countries, including EU member states.
Crypto’s resilience to tariff shocks
After the February 2026 announcement of a 10% universal tariff, Bitcoin and Ether showed notable stability. That was a surprise, given that earlier tariff salvos in 2025, particularly around “Liberation Day” in April, had triggered meaningful declines as investors retreated from risk assets.
The President’s Working Group on Digital Assets has been operating independently of the trade apparatus, pushing executive orders and regulatory reforms designed to make the US the “crypto capital of the world.” Its independence from the trade team means crypto-friendly regulation hasn’t been used as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations.
What this means for investors
Baseline tariffs around 15% increase operational costs for companies manufacturing crypto mining hardware and other specialized equipment. Most of that hardware supply chain runs through countries directly in the crosshairs of current and proposed tariff actions.
The key variable to monitor is whether the USMCA deadline passes without resolution and whether the proposed Section 301 actions against EU nations actually take effect. Either development would represent a significant escalation in trade hostilities, and would test whether crypto’s resilience to tariff shocks has real staying power.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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