Trump’s trade brinkmanship reignites inflation concerns, says ING

President Trump’s renewed trade offensive, which targets imports from roughly 60 countries with tariffs starting at 10%, has ING and other analysts revisiting their inflation playbooks for 2026.

What’s actually happening with prices

Core goods prices were running at just 1.1% year-over-year in early 2026, a figure that tells you Corporate America has been swallowing a meaningful chunk of these costs rather than passing them straight to shoppers.

When earlier rounds of U.S. tariffs hit foreign appliances, consumers ultimately bore more than 60% of those costs, and appliance prices climbed roughly 12% in the aftermath.

The new wave of measures, carrying rates of at least 10% on approximately 99% of imports from those targeted countries, is scheduled to kick in around July 24, 2026, replacing expiring provisions.

ING’s read: concerned but not panicking

ING’s February 2026 outlook kept its inflation and growth forecasts largely intact despite the new tariff slate, pointing to offsetting disinflationary forces including moderating rents and cooling wage growth.

ING’s analysts flagged that sustained policy uncertainty tends to support longer-term interest rates, pushing up borrowing costs across mortgages, corporate debt, and beyond.

Aggressive tariff pass-through could push inflation up by roughly one percentage point in contained scenarios. Full pass-through, in the more extreme models, could add more than four points. Actual inflation has so far tracked closer to the benign end of that range.

What investors should be watching

The July 24 effective date for the new tariff tranche is a concrete calendar event. Watch core goods CPI prints in August and September for early signals on how retailers and importers are responding to the new cost structure.

Consumer discretionary companies with globally diversified supply chains carry the most direct exposure. Retailers sourcing heavily from the roughly 60 targeted countries face the sharpest cost pressures, even if they’re currently managing them.

ING’s relatively sanguine base case rests on the assumption that the current tariff structure represents a ceiling, not a floor. If that assumption breaks, the inflation and rate calculus changes materially.

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