Trump: Strait of Hormuz “fully open,” US blockade lift remains unconfirmed

President Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz is “fully open and ready for business.” The market for Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31, 2026, sits at 87% YES.

Market reaction

The April 19 market rose modestly to 18% YES. Traders are betting on a formal announcement soon, though Trump’s statement lacked specifics about actually lifting the blockade. The largest move was a 6-point drop at 5:53 PM, a sign that skepticism persists.

In the US-Iran peace markets, Trump’s statement pushed odds upward. The May 31 peace deal market is at 61.5% YES, up from 31% a week ago. The April 22 market sits at 31.5% YES.

Why it matters

The blockade announcement market trades $7,205 in face value daily, with $5,868 in actual USDC. It takes $3,730 to move this market 5 points, which indicates solid liquidity. The peace deal markets show heavier trading: $2.48M in face value and $711K in actual USDC over the past 24 hours.

Trump’s tone is positive, but without a concrete blockade lift, the announcement is still speculative. At 87¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by May 31, a 1.22x return. That bet requires believing a formal announcement is imminent.

What to watch

US Navy activity and official White House statements on the strait’s operational status. Any confirmation of mine clearance or unimpeded maritime traffic would move these markets sharply.

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