Trump threatens to bomb Oman, rejects Iran MoU extension amid rising tensions

President Donald Trump has escalated tensions in the Middle East by threatening to bomb Oman, a move that comes as he also rejects extending the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran. This development was reported amid ongoing conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, with Oman previously playing a diplomatic role. South Korea is now considering joining U.S. military efforts against Iran, following pressure from Washington. These actions suggest an expanding conflict and a potential shift in regional alliances.

The market for a final US-Iran nuclear deal appears to reflect heightened skepticism in light of these developments. Odds for the deal by the end of August 2026 currently stand at 0.9% YES, a decrease from earlier in the month. By the end of September, the likelihood is priced at 3% YES, further indicating diminished expectations for a diplomatic resolution. The possibility of a deal by December 31, 2026, is still considered higher, at 16% YES, yet this too reflects a significant drop from previous levels.

Key Takeaways

• The threat to bomb Oman and rejection of the MoU with Iran appears consistent with a decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal.
• South Korea’s potential involvement in U.S. military efforts against Iran suggests a widening of the coalition against Iran.
• Market pricing indicates skepticism about reaching a final nuclear agreement by the specified deadlines.

What to Watch

Watch for any official statements from the U.S. administration or Iran that could further clarify their positions on the nuclear deal. South Korea’s decision on joining U.S. military efforts against Iran could significantly impact regional dynamics. Additionally, any new diplomatic initiatives involving Oman or other regional actors may influence market perceptions and the likelihood of a nuclear agreement.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.