Trump to pay DHS employees; Iran drafts hormuz protocol with Oman

2 hours ago 11

Trump will sign an order to pay DHS employees during the Democrat-led shutdown. Iran is working with Oman on a protocol for the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Traders adjusted their positions, with odds rising for later dates. The April 30 market increased to 38% YES from 36%. The May 31 market climbed to 56% YES, marking the largest recent gain. The protocol drafting hints at diplomatic moves, which traders see as a sign of possible de-escalation.

Traders expect significant developments by late April. A 20-point jump between April 15 (18% YES) and April 30 (38% YES) suggests anticipation of a mid-April catalyst. Near-term odds for an April 7 ceasefire remain low, indicating skepticism about immediate progress.

Trading volume is high, with $1,365,780 in daily USDC traded across these markets. The April 15 market alone sees $594,502 daily, showing strong interest. With $43,954 needed to move the price 5 points, this market has depth, indicating a broad trader base.

Iran and Oman’s diplomatic steps are promising for ceasefire bets. However, without scheduled talks or named intermediaries, these are early signals. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, offering a 12.5x return for those betting on a quick resolution. Belief in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough is essential for this bet.

Watch for statements from Oman or Qatar on mediation progress. Any mention of talks or softened rhetoric could significantly shift odds.