3 hours ago
9
Tucker Carlson said he regrets helping Trump win the 2024 election, and the Polymarket odds on Trump publicly insulting Carlson by April 30 sit at 100.0% YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 insult market is priced at full certainty with 10 days remaining. Traders appear to view Trump’s pattern of responding to criticism from former allies as making an insult all but guaranteed. Other sub-markets predicting insults toward Marjorie Taylor Greene and Viktor Orbán are priced similarly, pointing to a broad expectation that Trump will lash out across the board.
Why it matters
There is no trading volume behind the 100% price. No actual trades have gone through, which means the probability is theoretical rather than backed by real money. The market may be pricing in a general expectation rather than reacting to any specific recent event. Carlson’s public regret is notable as a shift within conservative media, but the market had already priced in this kind of outcome.
What to watch
At 100¢, a YES share offers zero upside unless something unexpected happens. The relevant question for traders is when Trump responds, not whether he does. Truth Social posts and public appearances are the most likely venues for any insult.
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