UAE crude exports return to pre-war levels as Iranian shipments vanish

The UAE’s crude oil exports have staged a remarkable comeback. Tanker tracking data from TankerTrackers.com shows that by early September 2026, UAE shipments had recovered to within 0.02% of their pre-war volumes. Meanwhile, Iranian crude exports have all but disappeared, dropping as much as 100% from pre-conflict levels.

A tale of two exporters

When conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel erupted in late February 2026, it sent shockwaves through global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply typically flows, became a chokepoint in the most literal sense. UAE crude exports cratered to approximately 1.9 to 2.13 million barrels per day in March 2026.

From June through September 2026, UAE exports ranged between 3.7 and 4.3 million bpd, nearly matching pre-war output. The UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, spanning 380 kilometers, connects Abu Dhabi’s inland oil fields directly to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The Mandous underground storage facility holds roughly 42 million barrels, adding another layer of resilience.

A US naval blockade first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in July 2026 effectively sealed off Iranian tanker traffic through the strait. By August 2026, Iranian crude exports had fallen to between 220,000 and 260,000 bpd, down from a pre-war range of 1.7 to 2 million bpd. Iran has been reduced to relying on minimal floating storage and domestic distribution channels, with international tanker traffic from Iranian ports dropping to near zero.

What it means for global oil markets

Gulf region exports as a whole have stabilized at roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. Oil prices have settled near $70 per barrel following a peace deal reached in mid-June 2026, close to where prices sat before the conflict began.

Infrastructure as geopolitical insurance

The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline was completed in 2012, originally conceived as a hedge against exactly this kind of scenario. Iran’s major export terminals at Kharg Island and Bandar Abbas both require passage through or near the Strait of Hormuz, leaving no alternative route for Iranian crude to reach international markets once the US Navy established its blockade.

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