Ukraine targets Russian oil infrastructure in 40-day campaign

Ukraine’s recent 40-day military campaign, initiated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has sought to pressure Russia into ending the ongoing conflict by targeting critical infrastructure within Russian territory. Since launching on June 25, 2026, the operation, led by the Security Service of Ukraine, has focused on degrading Russia’s oil infrastructure and logistics networks. Key strikes have included attacks on oil refineries as far as Ufa and disruptions to relay stations in Belarus, alongside operational interference with Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers. Despite these efforts, the campaign has not yet compelled Russia to negotiate peace, as Russian forces continue their large-scale attacks on Ukrainian territory.

Markets appear to view Ukraine’s intensified military efforts as a factor that could potentially influence the likelihood of changes in territorial control. The campaign has contributed to a state of emergency in occupied Crimea and has been a factor in stalling Russian advances earlier in the year. However, Russia has maintained its territorial demands, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterating Moscow’s commitment to its objectives.

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine’s military campaign appears to have inflicted significant damage on Russian infrastructure, suggesting potential impacts on Russian military logistics.
• Market pricing implies that Ukraine’s efforts may increase the likelihood of recapturing Crimea, as reflected in pricing supportive of YES outcomes for this scenario.
• The ongoing campaign seems consistent with decreasing the probability of Russia capturing Sloviansk by the end of the year, with market odds reflecting this view.

What to Watch

Observers will be keenly watching for any shifts in Russian military posture or diplomatic overtures that could indicate a change in the current impasse. Developments such as increased NATO support for Ukraine or new international sanctions against Russia could further influence market perceptions and odds. Any significant changes in control of key territories, or breakthroughs in negotiations, would be consistent with substantial shifts in market pricing for related geopolitical outcomes.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.