1 hour ago
16
The Strait of Hormuz is now blockaded by both the US and Iran, and the market for the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 sits at 1.9% YES, effectively unchanged from 24 hours ago and down from 10% a week ago.
Market reaction
The odds for sending warships have sat flat at 1.9% across all sub-markets, with just 6 days until resolution. Actual USDC traded is $232 per day, a thin volume that signals little expectation of movement.
Meanwhile, the odds for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 dropped to 65.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday. That 16-point fall in a single day points to traders pricing in a longer blockade than previously expected.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market also moved lower, with odds of normal traffic returning by May 15 falling to 17.5% YES, a 1-point drop.
Why it matters
Total face value traded across these markets is $362,986, with actual USDC at $116,681. The order book is thin: as little as $860 could move the UK warship market by 5 points, meaning these contracts are vulnerable to large swings from small trades.
At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if the UK sends warships, a potential 50x return. But with both the US and Iran maintaining the blockade and only 6 days left, the market treats that outcome as near-impossible.
What to watch
Track Trump, General Dan Caine, and IRGC officials for any shifts in policy or rhetoric. Announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or CENTCOM on changes in military posture would be the most direct catalysts.
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