US and Iran to hold indirect talks amid ongoing conflict

US and Iranian officials are set to engage in indirect talks today, according to AFP reports. The discussions form part of ongoing efforts to address diplomatic tensions amidst the active conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. This initiative follows a memorandum of understanding announced on June 14, 2026, which extended a ceasefire for 60 days to facilitate final negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief. The US aims to broaden the negotiations to encompass missile programs and proxy support, while Iran insists on focusing solely on nuclear issues.

Key Takeaways

• The announcement of indirect talks between US and Iran appears to suggest a potential for renewed diplomatic engagement, which could influence the likelihood of an official meeting.
• Current market pricing for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026, stands at 12.5% YES, reflecting a decrease from 37% 24 hours ago, suggesting a shift in participant sentiment.
• Recent diplomatic efforts, including the extension of a ceasefire, indicate ongoing attempts to resolve the conflict, though substantive agreements remain uncertain.

What to Watch

Watch for official statements from both the US and Iranian governments for any indications of progress or setbacks in the talks. Developments such as an announcement of a second round of talks or any military actions in the region could significantly impact market expectations. Key actors, including US Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian officials, may provide further insights into the likelihood of an official diplomatic meeting occurring before the July 3 deadline.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.