3 hours ago
16
US Central Command Chief Brad Cooper has confirmed full enforcement of a maritime blockade on Iranian ports. The market on Trump announcing the blockade’s lifting by May 31 sits at 90% YES.
Cooper’s statement directly affects the US Blockade of Hormuz market. Odds for the blockade being lifted by April 19 are at 23% YES, meaning traders see a near-term de-escalation as unlikely. The biggest jump is between April 19 and May 31, a 64-point increase that reflects expectations of a potential catalyst in the coming weeks.
Combined trading volume hit $33,260 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. It takes $3,730 to move the May 31 market odds by 5 points, a sign of strong liquidity. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 6-point drop in the April 19 market, reinforcing bearish sentiment on an imminent resolution.
Cooper’s comments confirm the US intends to maintain the blockade, which weighs heavily on odds for a quick lifting. At 23¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade ends by April 19, a 5.6x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch the Pentagon’s next briefing and any statements from the Iranian government for shifts in posture. Trump’s rhetoric on social media could also move these markets.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) ·