4 hours ago
16
An F/A-18E Super Hornet launched from the USS Abraham Lincoln as ship traffic through the Persian Gulf dropped from 150 vessels to just five. The market on the US escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 is at 14.5% YES, up from 18% yesterday.
Market reaction
The naval blockade has traders reconsidering allied warship movements through the Strait. The UK sending warships through Hormuz by April 30 is at 8.5% YES. Those odds saw a 2-point bump at 4:25 PM, suggesting traders are pricing in possible naval coordination with the US.
Why it matters
The collapse from 150 vessels to five shows how effectively the US is enforcing the blockade. That enforcement makes commercial escorts more plausible, which is why the escort market moved from 18% to 14.5%. With just 12 days until April 30, any confirmation of escort missions could push odds higher.
What to watch
The blockade puts direct economic pressure on Iran, and traders are pricing that into escort likelihood. A YES share on the US escort market costs 21.5¢ and pays $1 if it resolves YES, a 4.65x return. Watch for Pentagon briefings or CENTCOM statements confirming escort operations, either of which would move these markets fast.
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