US government warns countries to choose sides in AI race

The US State Department is preparing to deliver what amounts to a geopolitical loyalty test to roughly 35 countries: pick us or pick China, but you can’t have both.

The warning, reported on August 14, 2026, tells partner nations in the US-led Pax Silica initiative that any participation in China’s World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation, known as WAICO, will result in exclusion from the American-led bloc.

Two blocs, one ultimatum

Pax Silica launched on December 12, 2025, at a summit in Washington, D.C. Its founding partners included Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the UK, and Australia. The EU, India, and Israel joined later.

The initiative’s core mission is supply-chain resilience. Signatories committed to coordinated investments in semiconductors and data centers, with the explicit goal of reducing dependence on concentrated supply chains, particularly those running through China.

On the other side of this divide sits WAICO, announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping on July 16, 2026, during a speech in Shanghai. It launched with 29 founding members, including Brazil, Russia, and South Africa.

Kazakhstan’s awkward position

Of all the countries caught in this tug-of-war, Kazakhstan finds itself in the most interesting spot. It’s reportedly the only nation currently participating in both Pax Silica and WAICO, a diplomatic balancing act that the US warning seems designed to make untenable.

The enforcement question

There’s a notable gap between the ultimatum’s ambition and its teeth. The draft statement reportedly lacks specific enforcement measures or sanctions.

Still, the implicit threat is real enough. Exclusion from Pax Silica would mean losing access to coordinated semiconductor investments and potentially being shut out of supply chains for advanced chips. The US controls, either directly or through allies, the most critical chokepoints in the global chip supply chain, from ASML’s lithography machines in the Netherlands to TSMC’s fabrication plants in Taiwan.

China’s counter-offer through WAICO faces its own limitations. Beijing’s most advanced chip manufacturing still trails behind what’s available through Pax Silica partners, and US export controls have constrained China’s ability to share cutting-edge hardware with allies.

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