US government weighs military strikes as Iran’s Supreme Leader decides on nuclear deal

The US is staring down one of its most consequential foreign policy decisions in years. President Trump paused a military strike on Iran scheduled for May 18-23, 2026, after Pakistan delivered a revised nuclear proposal, creating a narrow window where diplomacy and bombs are both still on the table.

On the Iranian side, the decision now rests with a new and untested leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, is weighing whether to accept the deal or reject it outright.

A fragile ceasefire with a ticking clock

The revised proposal reportedly centers on limitations on uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. If that sounds like the 2015 JCPOA, it should. That deal, which placed constraints on Iran’s nuclear program in return for economic breathing room, was the last time the US and Iran found common ground. The US withdrew from it in 2018 under Trump’s first term.

Prediction markets are reflecting the uncertainty in real time, with deal probabilities fluctuating between 20% and 57% through mid-2026. Activity on those prediction markets has been peaking around a June 30 timeline, suggesting bettors see the next six weeks as the make-or-break period.

The crypto angle is bigger than you’d think

The US Treasury froze approximately $344 million in digital assets associated with Iranian networks in 2026 as part of sanctions enforcement actions. A successful nuclear deal could shift this dynamic in meaningful ways. Reduced tensions and eventual sanctions relief would theoretically remove some of the incentive for Iranian-linked entities to use crypto as a workaround for traditional financial exclusion.

What this means for markets

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes, is the most obvious pressure point. A deal that stabilizes the region would likely deflate the geopolitical risk premium currently baked into energy prices.

The $344 million freeze demonstrated that digital assets are now a frontline tool in geopolitical enforcement. Any resolution, or escalation, of the Iran situation will directly influence how aggressively regulators treat crypto’s role in international capital flows.

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