US holds firm on Iran, Russia oil waivers; traders see low supply shock risk

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed support for dollar swap lines amid the UAE’s potential funding request and said there are no plans to renew Iranian or Russian oil waivers. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 is priced at 1.1% YES.

Market reaction

Bessent’s comments reinforce the US hardline stance on Iran and Russia. The crude oil all-time-high market, at just 1.1%, shows traders see almost no chance of an imminent supply shock. Volume is thin: $2,513 in daily USDC traded, and a $695 order can move the price 5 percentage points.

The market on whether Trump will agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by end of April has collapsed to 3.5% YES, down from 62% a week ago. That drop tracks directly with Bessent’s no-waiver signal. Daily volume is $1,944 in USDC.

The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 14.3% YES, with $6,833 in daily USDC traded. This market is also illiquid: a $141 order can shift odds 5 percentage points.

Why it matters

Bessent’s refusal to renew oil waivers for Iran and Russia removes a potential source of supply relief. If maximum pressure continues, Iranian barrels stay off the market, which keeps a floor under oil prices. Yet traders clearly don’t expect this to push crude to record levels, given the 1.1% pricing on the all-time-high contract.

The sanction relief market’s crash from 62% to 3.5% in a single week is one of the sharpest repricing events on Polymarket recently, and it happened almost entirely on Bessent’s statements.

What to watch

Any shift in US Treasury or State Department positions on Iran waivers could reprice these markets quickly. OPEC+ production announcements matter too. The UAE’s potential formal funding request could signal broader Gulf alignment with US policy, which would further reduce the odds of sanction relief.

At 1.1¢, a YES share on crude oil reaching a new high pays $1, a roughly 90:1 return if unexpected supply disruptions materialize.

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