US proposes three-to-six-month extension of China trade truce as November deadline looms

The US has proposed extending its trade truce with China by three to six months, but preparatory talks held on September 20 failed to produce an immediate agreement. The current truce, born out of the 2025 Busan deal, expires on November 10, leaving negotiators roughly seven weeks to either strike a new arrangement or brace for a return to escalating tariffs.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer acknowledged persistent divisions between Washington and Beijing after the discussions, which also involved Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Where things stand

The disagreements span the usual roster of US-China friction points, but three areas are drawing the most attention heading into a scheduled Trump-Xi summit on September 24.

First, rare-earth minerals. China’s compliance with previous commitments on rare-earth exports has been assessed at roughly two-thirds of what was agreed upon. Greer characterized current supply levels as satisfactory but not optimal.

Second, agricultural purchases. Beijing has met its annual soybean purchase targets of 25 million metric tons per year through 2028, one of the clearer wins to emerge from the broader trade framework.

Third, technology competition and supply-chain security. These structural issues sit at the core of the US-China rivalry and are widely seen as too complex to resolve in any near-term negotiation window.

Negotiations have also included a proposed reciprocal tariff reduction framework covering approximately $30 billion in goods per side.

The Busan deal’s legacy

The current truce architecture traces back to the 2025 Busan deal, which paused major tariff escalations and export control measures. The Busan framework gave both sides breathing room to negotiate on tariffs, agricultural trade, and mineral exports without the threat of immediate retaliation. It also established the cadence of high-level preparatory talks followed by leader-level summits, the exact pattern playing out now with the September 20 discussions feeding into the September 24 Trump-Xi meeting.

What the summit could deliver

President Trump and President Xi are scheduled to meet on September 24, but expectations for a major breakthrough are muted. The preparatory talks were designed to narrow the gap enough for the leaders to agree on broad parameters, not to produce a finished deal.

The reciprocal tariff reduction framework covering $30 billion in goods per side offers a potential sweetener that could help both governments sell an extension domestically. China’s partial compliance on rare-earth commitments, roughly two-thirds by current assessments, illustrates the dynamic: it’s enough to keep the relationship functional, not enough to build lasting trust.

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