Why Japan’s “Takaichi Trade” Could Pressure the Crypto Market Despite Post-Election Rebound

Japan’s snap election delivered a decisive mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, triggering an immediate rally across equities, foreign exchange, and crypto markets. The Nikkei 225 surged to record highs above 57,000, the yen weakened sharply, and Bitcoin briefly climbed past $72,000 during Asian trading hours.

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At first glance, the reaction looked like a classic risk-on move driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus and policy continuity. But beneath the rebound, a different dynamic is taking shape, one that could tighten global liquidity and pressure risk assets in the near term.

Traders have dubbed the shift the “Takaichi trade,” a combination of aggressive fiscal expansion, tolerance for a weaker yen, and support for loose monetary conditions. While this mix has lifted Japanese stocks and exporters, analysts warn it is also reshaping cross-border capital flows in ways that may weigh on global markets.

Portfolio Rebalancing and Liquidity Tightening

According to analysis from CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan, the main risk does not stem from capital fleeing the United States outright. Instead, global investors are rebalancing portfolios as Japanese government bonds regain appeal after years of ultra-low yields.

Expectations of higher spending and reflation have pushed yields up, drawing capital back into domestic Japanese assets. This rotation has coincided with a pullback in U.S. equities.

Over the past week, major indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, slipped into correction territory, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a reassessment of risk. As inflows into U.S. equity ETFs slow, marginal liquidity across global markets has declined, amplifying volatility.

Currency dynamics add another layer of pressure. Yen weakness, persistent U.S.–Japan rate differentials, and steady demand for dollars have increased funding costs for leveraged trades. Historically, such conditions tend to push investors to de-risk across multiple asset classes simultaneously.

Bitcoin’s recent pullback fits this pattern. Despite briefly reclaiming levels above $70,000 after the election, analysts note that crypto markets remain closely linked to U.S. equities during risk-off phases. When stocks weaken, portfolio managers often trim crypto exposure simultaneously to manage overall volatility.

CryptoQuant data suggests the current softness in Bitcoin prices is driven less by on-chain deterioration and more by futures unwinds and leverage reduction. Open interest has declined, and forced liquidations earlier in the month cleared out crowded long positions, leaving traders more cautious about chasing rebounds.

From a longer-term perspective, Japan’s political stability could still support digital asset adoption. Takaichi’s supermajority gives her administration room to advance tax reforms, stablecoin regulations, and Web3 initiatives later in 2026.

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For now, however, the market remains vulnerable to global risk cycles. As capital continues to adjust to Japan’s fiscal pivot and U.S. equities stay under pressure, short-term downside risks are likely to persist despite the post-election bounce.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview