XRP Bulls Are Standing on a Trapdoor That Opens Below $1

A bearish pattern on the XRP price chart points to a steep drop, even after bulls stepped in to defend the line today.

The defense rests on conviction buyers who expect this floor to hold. On-chain data suggests that floor is thinner than they think.

XRP Price Carves a Bearish Pattern on the 12-Hour Chart

XRP’s 12-hour chart shows a head and shoulders, a bearish reversal pattern.

The pattern hangs on its neckline, the rising support drawn under the lows. A clean break below it would confirm the reversal and open a deeper slide. So far, bulls have defended that line, and XRP price today is holding just above it. But a held pattern is not a broken one, and the structure stays bearish for now. The projected target points to $0.96, a sub-$1 scare.

XRP Head and Shoulders Pattern: TradingView

But why did buyers step in right there? The answer sits in on-chain holder data.

Holders Are Buying the Dip, Betting the Floor Holds

The buyers were not short-term traders. XRP hodler net position change tracks the most patient owners, those holding for at least 155 days. It shows whether they are adding or trimming coins. The reading rose from about 258.95 million XRP on June 19 to roughly 264.25 million by June 21. That is a small bump of about 2%.

XRP Hodler Net Position Change: Glassnode

So long-term XRP holders are buying into the dip, and the move has possibly lifted the mood. They appear to treat the neckline zone as firm support, worth defending. Their conviction is real, but their read may not be. The cost basis data tells a different story.

Why Support Looks Thinner Than Holders Believe

A cost basis distribution heatmap shows the price at which the existing supply was last bought. It reveals where real support and resistance sit. Right now, about 56.2 million XRP was last acquired near the current level. That cluster is what holders are defending.

XRP Cost Basis Distribution Current Levels: Glassnode

Just below, the picture thins fast. The next zone, between $1.10 and $1.11, holds only about 24.6 million XRP, less than half the cluster above it. So if the current level breaks, far fewer buyers sit underneath to catch the fall.

XRP Cost Basis Distribution Under Neckline: Glassnode

The XRP support that holders trust looks thinner than they believe, and the pattern is already pointed down. That makes the price levels the real test.

XRP Price Levels to Watch as the Pattern Decides

XRP price trades near $1.13, sitting under the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.14. The neckline support sits just slightly under but above $1.10, the 0.786 level.

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That $1.10 line is critical, and the cost basis data shows little supply to defend it. A clean 12-hour break under the neckline and then $1.10, opens $1.04, and targets $0.96, roughly 14.5% below the neckline. Below that, $0.89 comes into view.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

The bullish case needs a firm reclaim of $1.14, then $1.17, which would confirm the right shoulder invalidation. Only a move above $1.29, the head, would break the bearish XRP price prediction outright. For now, $1.10 separates a defended floor from a slide toward $0.96.

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