Bitcoin closes two consecutive negative quarters, traders see no further drop

Bitcoin has closed two consecutive negative quarters, with Q4 2025 down 23.7% and Q1 2026 also in the red. On Polymarket, the contract for Bitcoin being below $68,000 on April 24 sits at 0.1% YES, showing almost no trader interest in a continued decline.

Market reaction

The below-$68,000 market has seen just $55 in USDC volume over the past 24 hours. It would take only $503 to move the odds by 5 points, a sign of thin liquidity and little conviction. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April is similarly dead at 0.2% YES, with $953 in USDC traded. The largest recent price shift in the below-$68,000 contract was negligible. Traders are either sitting on existing positions or waiting for new information.

Why it matters

Two consecutive bear quarters have historically preceded rebounds, but a third leg down would break that pattern. The near-zero odds on both contracts say traders don’t expect a dramatic drop this month. For contrarians, buying YES at 0.2¢ on the $60,000 dip contract pays $1 if it hits, a 500x return. That bet requires believing macroeconomic stress will drive prices down fast within April.

What to watch

Federal Reserve policy signals and large institutional moves from players like BlackRock or Fidelity could shift these markets. Any change in monetary policy or a major allocation decision would be the most likely catalyst to move odds off the floor.

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